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For those of you who were roped into a pool this year and don't know exactly what you are doing, here are some pointers to keep the headaches at bay.Whether you are in a small office pool or a building-wide pool, there is something to be said about strategy for beginner "bracketeers." Let's explore some key strategies for those who are trying not to get buried by the pros in the first few rounds:
1. Small Pools - It's obvious that staying in a small pool will boost your odds of winning, even if you don't know exactly what you're doing. This is a great strategy for beginners because your picks won't require as much gray matter. Picking the top-dogs will be sufficient in this case.
2. Don't pick the top-dogs when a in large pool - If you want a bracket with more value that not every one else has, in this case, the top teams are riskier to pick. There is still a decent chance in the earlier rounds for randomness and luck to determine the end results, hence a greater chance of losing your bracket early.
3. Instead, pick teams that shoot a higher percentage of 3 pointers - These teams are a safer bet because they run a better chance of a hot streak beyond the 3-point-line.
4. Do not pick a lot of underdogs - Statistically, the seed number is still a good indicator of a team's success. 71% of wins are done by the teams with the higher seed
5. Don’t buy into the 5-12 match-up - There is a big mythology behind the 12 seeds winning in the 5-12 match up, but in the past decade the 5 seed has won the majority of the time.
So, there you have it. Keeping these pointers in mind, mixing them into your own recipe, will increase your "noobie-odds" out of the gate. After all, haven't you heard of beginner's luck before?
What other strategies are good for a March Madness layman?