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NCAA March Madness - Noob Bracketology


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    For those of you who were roped into a pool this year and don't know exactly what you are doing, here are some pointers to keep the headaches at bay.Whether you are in a small office pool or a building-wide pool, there is something to be said about strategy for beginner "bracketeers." Let's explore some key strategies for those who are trying not to get buried by the pros in the first few rounds:

    1. Small Pools - It's obvious that staying in a small pool will boost your odds of winning, even if you don't know exactly what you're doing. This is a great strategy for beginners because your picks won't require as much gray matter. Picking the top-dogs will be sufficient in this case.

    2. Don't pick the top-dogs when a in large pool - If you want a bracket with more value that not every one else has, in this case, the top teams are riskier to pick. There is still a decent chance in the earlier rounds for randomness and luck to determine the end results, hence a greater chance of losing your bracket early.

    3. Instead, pick teams that shoot a higher percentage of 3 pointers - These teams are a safer bet because they run a better chance of a hot streak beyond the 3-point-line.

    4. Do not pick a lot of underdogs - Statistically, the seed number is still a good indicator of a team's success. 71% of wins are done by the teams with the higher seed

    5. Don’t buy into the 5-12 match-up - There is a big mythology behind the 12 seeds winning in the 5-12 match up, but in the past decade the 5 seed has won the majority of the time.

    So, there you have it. Keeping these pointers in mind, mixing them into your own recipe, will increase your "noobie-odds" out of the gate. After all, haven't you heard of beginner's luck before?

    What other strategies are good for a March Madness layman?

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    JFoster Wrote:

    What other strategies are good for a March Madness laymen?

    Depends on how much each bracket is costing you. If it's cheap enough, I'd do a couple, if that's allowed.

    Do the first one where you pick the best seeded team for each match up, across the board. Just pick the team with the lowest seed #. And when it comes to match ups with same seeds facing each other, go with the team highest ranked, using this official ranking from the NCAA.

    Do the second one where you go safe for the first few rounds. Again, just pick the lowest seed #. And do this across the board, but pick a few upsets. Find a team that you want to root for that's ranked pretty high already. For example: #2 Oklahoma. They might win it all. You can pick safe for all except them and that could be enough to win it all for you.

    If you dare do a third... this is where you just go crazy and pick upsets just based off of how you feel about the names of the schools. No one really knows all 68 teams. I wouldn't pick a #16 seed to win it all, or anything too unlikely. But #8 beating out #4's, stuff like that. Maybe pick a 3-5 seed to win it all. Stuff like that.


    So there you go. A straight up safe bracket. Worse case scenario someone else does that too, and you split the winnings. Then a slightly unsafe one. And then a potential 3rd, more for fun and practice. My 2 cents anyways; has worked well for me in the past.

    Good luck to ya.

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    A couple would probably be a good idea, especially if they were small pools. Thanks!
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    JFoster Wrote:

    5. Don’t buy into the 5-12 match-up - There is a big mythology behind the 12 seeds winning in the 5-12 match up, but in the past decade the 5 seed has won the majority of the time.

    Yup, only one 12-seed has made the Elite Eight, when Missouri lost to Oklahoma in overtime in 2002.