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Monaco Grand Prix Odds and Predictions

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    I think it goes without saying that Lewis Hamilton is a very strong favorite to win the Monaco GP. He helped to further Mercedes' domination in Formula 1 by winning the Spanish Grand Prix for a fourth time, this year. Which also put him at the top of the F1 Drivers Standings by 7 points, moving past Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas. Both of Hamilton's practice runs at Monaco speak just as loudly in my opinion. So I thought I'd post some odds to show how he stacks up against the other drivers.

    • Lewis Hamilton +110
    • Valtteri Bottas +200
    • Max Verstappen +335
    • Charles Leclerc +2000
    • Sebastian Vettel +2000
    • Pierre Gasly +2500

    Do numbers actually speak for themselves? I'm not familiar with F1 history as much. Perhaps someone can tell us about upsets in the past with odds similar to these?

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    I would say if Hamilton is favored in the prediction market that heavily it usually translates to a win. Interesting to note that Valtteri Bottas is also a Mercedes driver and Hamilton's teammate. So its clear everyone collectively expects Mercedes to be the big winner this year.

    Hamilton won it in 2016 and 2008 and we do see a lot of repeat winners at Monaco. The event has been really bad at parity the last few decades so I would put my money on him if I were betting.

    To illustrate the point here are all the winners since 2006, you'll see all the repeat names:

    2018 - Daniel Ricciardo
    2017- Sebastian Vettel
    2016- Lewis Hamilton
    2015 - Nico Rosberg
    2014- Nico Rosberg
    2013 - Nico Rosberg
    2012 - Mark Webber
    2011 - Sebastian Vettel
    2010 - Mark Webber
    2009 - Jenson Button
    2008 - Lewis Hamilton
    2007- Fernando Alonso
    2006 - Fernando Alonso

    So that's 7 different winners in 13 years. If Hamilton wins it'll by 7 in 14 years.

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    Thanks for the info on that. I know in other sports it's all but a sure thing. I was wondering if it was any different for F1 racing. That definitely answers the question then. Looks like it will definitely be Mercedes, and more than likely Hamilton winning it.
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    Always wonder how the conversation goes down between teammates when they know they will probably finish 1st and 2nd. How do they decide who will win? By the better qualifier time? Or do they race it out and just decide in the moment?
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    Turned out Hamilton was the easy lock we all thought he was - 2019 Monaco Grand Prix - Highlights. Was really a pretty predictable race this year. Also interesting that only 1 driver of the 20 retired from the race, and that was from a punctured tire. All the rest finished. So really a nice, accident-free race.